what it all means
So I started this post about two weeks ago but the stresses of school prevented me from posting for a while. The gist of the post remains the same and of course I will update it to take into account today’s Wisconsin results and Seth’s criticisms. I apologize to all our loyal readers (read: Seth and my mom) and promise to increase the regularity of posting. Now on to the analysis:
We are now a month into primary/caucus season. 23% of the delegates chosen by the voters (as opposed to superdelegates) have been selected. That leaves a long long way to go. If we learned anything from the Dean climb and belly flop its that the laws of the primary season don't apply this year. So while Seth and all the "veteran" political analysts out there are talking about the inevitable nomination of the John Kerry, I'm going to remember back to one month ago, when Howard Dean was the "inevitable nominee", and continue the tradition of independent (and very often correct) analysis and prediction that you have grown to expect from ideoblogist.
So to get everyone’s blood rushing, let’s start with this: John Edwards will be the Democratic nominee. To explain why I know this, I will begin with why Kerry is currently the front-runner, why he will collapse and why Edwards will replace him.
Kerry: So he's the front-runner again. "Again" is the important part. If you think back to a year ago, you'll remember that Kerry spent almost a year as the establishment candidate/front-runner. It was only when the media started really tracking the primaries that Kerry lost that title. In a matter of a few months, journalists went from writing about Kerry's leading status to writing his political obituary. So what happened? Basically, someone (namely Dean) started asking Kerry tough questions. With the media focused on Kerry's pandering, flip-flopping on, well, every issue, unattractive personality and botox injections, his campaign collapsed. As soon as the heat was on, Kerry melted away. When he was the front-runner and there was nothing to report on (i.e. no primary wins) except him, he collapsed. Chances are, now that he's the front-runner again, once the media starts talking about Kerry himself and not his impressive streak of wins, he will collapse again. Lets just hope that happens before he's the nominee, not after.
So if Kerry's not going to win, how did he rise? The simple answer is the media, which I’ve come to realize has more power than G-D. Ok, maybe I’m exaggerating a little, but let me explain. Somehow Kerry won Iowa. This was mostly because Gephardt and Dean beat each other to death, which gave Kerry (and Edwards) the chance to lurch forward. So all of the sudden, Kerry was the story. In a week, the media went from pronouncing his candidacy all but dead to predicting his nomination. Kerry was on the cover of every paper and the lead story on every news program for the next week straight. And the polls in New Hampshire showed what a little media attention could do. On the day before the Iowa Caucuses, a Boston Globe/WBZ-TV tracking poll showed the NH race as: Dean 30%, Clark 23%, Kerry 14%. A day after the Iowa Caucuses, the same poll showed: Kerry: 31%, Dean 21%, Clark 16%. So in one day, Kerry more than doubled his support jumping 17% and by Election Day, Kerry won 38% and Dean won 26% of the vote. So what explains Kerry’s rise by 24% over one week? About 4% was the popping of the Dean bubble. The other 20% was momentum from his win in Iowa and the mass of media cover that he received as a result. His win in New Hampshire solidified his position as the front-runner and he rode this victory wave through February 3rd.
Essentially what I’m saying is that Kerry is a lucky duck. He rose to the front at the last possible second, thus avoiding the media scrutiny that comes with the invisible primary season. Once the media had actual primaries to report on, Kerry got nonstop positive coverage, which only resulted in more wins, and thus more positive press coverage. In the week from the NH primary to the February 3rd primaries, Kerry almost doubled his support in Delaware (27% to 50%), Arizona (23% to 43%), Missouri (25% to 51%) and South Carolina (17% to 30%) and made significant gains in New Mexico (31% to 42%), North Dakota (31% to 51%) and Oklahoma (17% to 27%). These weren’t voters that were in love with Kerry and his message. They were bandwagoning voters who jumped onto the winning campaign that they heard about nonstop in the media.
To add to this cycle, the media, which had apparently lost interest in the primaries started to write as if we were already in the general election season. And the Kerry campaign, smartly, played along. Article after article spoke of the Kerry-Bush battle to come, polls (at least the ones publicized in the news) gauged Kerry’s general election chances and my esteemed colleague posted on this very blog asking if we should all give up fighting for what we believe in and rally behind Kerry.
The answer, of course, is NO! The media made Dean and the media broke Dean. The media (and some luck in Iowa) made Kerry and the media will break Kerry (again) – and it will happen in the next two weeks. Between now and March 2nd, there is one primary day, February 24, and it gives out only 1.4% of the total delegates. So in the next two weeks of relative calm before Super Tuesday, when 26.7% of the delegates are selected, the media will have nothing to report on except Kerry the man (especially after his disappointing slim win in Wisconsin). And as Amy Sullivan, author of Political Aims, noted to me, the media has no love for Kerry. So, finally, look for some media scrutiny of Kerry. This is the first chance the media has had to breathe since Iowa and look for things to get brutal for Kerry. I’ll bet we will see some near repeats of articles written last spring that led to Kerry’s first fall. Super Tuesday will prove a huge obstacle for Kerry. I’m not predicting a complete blowout by Edwards, but Kerry will lose his momentum and begin his fall from the top.
Dean: I’m not going to waste my time on Dean. He’s been done since Iowa. He’s been even more done since NH. 'Nuff Said.
Edwards: As I said above: Edwards is going to win the nomination. His message is powerful, he’s charismatic, he’s good looking, he’s southern and his daughter goes to Princeton (ok, maybe that’s not what’s going to get him the nod, but the other stuff will). Most importantly, he’s finally catching on. He caught on in Iowa where he surprised everyone with a strong second finish. He carried this momentum into February with a win in South Carolina and a near tied with Clark in Oklahoma and strong second place finishes in Missouri, Virginia and Tennessee. All this has kept him alive as he is running second in voted delegates.
His surprising, strong second place finish in Wisconsin, however, will give him the boost and the media attention he needs to win big on Super Tuesday. How surprising was his finish? The latest Zogby poll had Kerry with 47%, Dean with 24% and Edwards with 20%. The final results had Kerry with 40%, Edwards with 34% and Dean with 18%. In the last days Edwards surged 14%. In the last two weeks, Edwards jumped 25%. What explains his surge? Simply put, John Edwards explains John Edwards strong finish. I’ve heard him speak and let me tell you, he’s amazing. His message is incredibly appealing and his style is comparable to Clinton’s. Take out momentum and let the people vote solely on their impressions of the candidates and I am certain that Edwards would be kicking Kerry’s ass.
Hmmm…it just so happens that the next two weeks will lend Edwards that opportunity. His above expectations finish in Wisconsin will slow Kerry’s momentum, give Edwards some media attention and a boost in fundraising money. At the same time, the two-week break will give the media a chance to criticize Kerry and change the story from Bush vs. Kerry to Edwards vs. Kerry. This will give Edwards a chance to spread his message and charm around the Super Tuesday states. As happened in Wisconsin, I predict it will catch on and Edwards will make some major gains as Kerry gets killed by the media.
To summarize: Dean’s done, Kerry has begun his fall and Edwards has made a major leap in his rise to the nomination. So Josh, how bout an Edwards-Kerry ticket? Or not.
We are now a month into primary/caucus season. 23% of the delegates chosen by the voters (as opposed to superdelegates) have been selected. That leaves a long long way to go. If we learned anything from the Dean climb and belly flop its that the laws of the primary season don't apply this year. So while Seth and all the "veteran" political analysts out there are talking about the inevitable nomination of the John Kerry, I'm going to remember back to one month ago, when Howard Dean was the "inevitable nominee", and continue the tradition of independent (and very often correct) analysis and prediction that you have grown to expect from ideoblogist.
So to get everyone’s blood rushing, let’s start with this: John Edwards will be the Democratic nominee. To explain why I know this, I will begin with why Kerry is currently the front-runner, why he will collapse and why Edwards will replace him.
Kerry: So he's the front-runner again. "Again" is the important part. If you think back to a year ago, you'll remember that Kerry spent almost a year as the establishment candidate/front-runner. It was only when the media started really tracking the primaries that Kerry lost that title. In a matter of a few months, journalists went from writing about Kerry's leading status to writing his political obituary. So what happened? Basically, someone (namely Dean) started asking Kerry tough questions. With the media focused on Kerry's pandering, flip-flopping on, well, every issue, unattractive personality and botox injections, his campaign collapsed. As soon as the heat was on, Kerry melted away. When he was the front-runner and there was nothing to report on (i.e. no primary wins) except him, he collapsed. Chances are, now that he's the front-runner again, once the media starts talking about Kerry himself and not his impressive streak of wins, he will collapse again. Lets just hope that happens before he's the nominee, not after.
So if Kerry's not going to win, how did he rise? The simple answer is the media, which I’ve come to realize has more power than G-D. Ok, maybe I’m exaggerating a little, but let me explain. Somehow Kerry won Iowa. This was mostly because Gephardt and Dean beat each other to death, which gave Kerry (and Edwards) the chance to lurch forward. So all of the sudden, Kerry was the story. In a week, the media went from pronouncing his candidacy all but dead to predicting his nomination. Kerry was on the cover of every paper and the lead story on every news program for the next week straight. And the polls in New Hampshire showed what a little media attention could do. On the day before the Iowa Caucuses, a Boston Globe/WBZ-TV tracking poll showed the NH race as: Dean 30%, Clark 23%, Kerry 14%. A day after the Iowa Caucuses, the same poll showed: Kerry: 31%, Dean 21%, Clark 16%. So in one day, Kerry more than doubled his support jumping 17% and by Election Day, Kerry won 38% and Dean won 26% of the vote. So what explains Kerry’s rise by 24% over one week? About 4% was the popping of the Dean bubble. The other 20% was momentum from his win in Iowa and the mass of media cover that he received as a result. His win in New Hampshire solidified his position as the front-runner and he rode this victory wave through February 3rd.
Essentially what I’m saying is that Kerry is a lucky duck. He rose to the front at the last possible second, thus avoiding the media scrutiny that comes with the invisible primary season. Once the media had actual primaries to report on, Kerry got nonstop positive coverage, which only resulted in more wins, and thus more positive press coverage. In the week from the NH primary to the February 3rd primaries, Kerry almost doubled his support in Delaware (27% to 50%), Arizona (23% to 43%), Missouri (25% to 51%) and South Carolina (17% to 30%) and made significant gains in New Mexico (31% to 42%), North Dakota (31% to 51%) and Oklahoma (17% to 27%). These weren’t voters that were in love with Kerry and his message. They were bandwagoning voters who jumped onto the winning campaign that they heard about nonstop in the media.
To add to this cycle, the media, which had apparently lost interest in the primaries started to write as if we were already in the general election season. And the Kerry campaign, smartly, played along. Article after article spoke of the Kerry-Bush battle to come, polls (at least the ones publicized in the news) gauged Kerry’s general election chances and my esteemed colleague posted on this very blog asking if we should all give up fighting for what we believe in and rally behind Kerry.
The answer, of course, is NO! The media made Dean and the media broke Dean. The media (and some luck in Iowa) made Kerry and the media will break Kerry (again) – and it will happen in the next two weeks. Between now and March 2nd, there is one primary day, February 24, and it gives out only 1.4% of the total delegates. So in the next two weeks of relative calm before Super Tuesday, when 26.7% of the delegates are selected, the media will have nothing to report on except Kerry the man (especially after his disappointing slim win in Wisconsin). And as Amy Sullivan, author of Political Aims, noted to me, the media has no love for Kerry. So, finally, look for some media scrutiny of Kerry. This is the first chance the media has had to breathe since Iowa and look for things to get brutal for Kerry. I’ll bet we will see some near repeats of articles written last spring that led to Kerry’s first fall. Super Tuesday will prove a huge obstacle for Kerry. I’m not predicting a complete blowout by Edwards, but Kerry will lose his momentum and begin his fall from the top.
Dean: I’m not going to waste my time on Dean. He’s been done since Iowa. He’s been even more done since NH. 'Nuff Said.
Edwards: As I said above: Edwards is going to win the nomination. His message is powerful, he’s charismatic, he’s good looking, he’s southern and his daughter goes to Princeton (ok, maybe that’s not what’s going to get him the nod, but the other stuff will). Most importantly, he’s finally catching on. He caught on in Iowa where he surprised everyone with a strong second finish. He carried this momentum into February with a win in South Carolina and a near tied with Clark in Oklahoma and strong second place finishes in Missouri, Virginia and Tennessee. All this has kept him alive as he is running second in voted delegates.
His surprising, strong second place finish in Wisconsin, however, will give him the boost and the media attention he needs to win big on Super Tuesday. How surprising was his finish? The latest Zogby poll had Kerry with 47%, Dean with 24% and Edwards with 20%. The final results had Kerry with 40%, Edwards with 34% and Dean with 18%. In the last days Edwards surged 14%. In the last two weeks, Edwards jumped 25%. What explains his surge? Simply put, John Edwards explains John Edwards strong finish. I’ve heard him speak and let me tell you, he’s amazing. His message is incredibly appealing and his style is comparable to Clinton’s. Take out momentum and let the people vote solely on their impressions of the candidates and I am certain that Edwards would be kicking Kerry’s ass.
Hmmm…it just so happens that the next two weeks will lend Edwards that opportunity. His above expectations finish in Wisconsin will slow Kerry’s momentum, give Edwards some media attention and a boost in fundraising money. At the same time, the two-week break will give the media a chance to criticize Kerry and change the story from Bush vs. Kerry to Edwards vs. Kerry. This will give Edwards a chance to spread his message and charm around the Super Tuesday states. As happened in Wisconsin, I predict it will catch on and Edwards will make some major gains as Kerry gets killed by the media.
To summarize: Dean’s done, Kerry has begun his fall and Edwards has made a major leap in his rise to the nomination. So Josh, how bout an Edwards-Kerry ticket? Or not.
posted by Marc at 1:52:00 AM
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