week before prediction
Kerry wins uncontested
Why? Voter turnout. Likely voter polls fail most significantly when turnout is greater than expected - when people who weren't expected to vote do vote. High voter turnout, historically, has favored the Democratic candidate. I'm guessing we'll see higher voter turnout than any time in the last 40 years. Young people are excited. Many are fueled by anti-Bush (or pro-Bush) passions. Every state that is polling at even, or close to tied, will swing to Kerry on election day.
"Close your eyes and imagine the bluest stretches of Blue America on a crisp and clear Wednesday. It's the night after the presidential election. Though it was certainly close...John Kerry won by a healthy margin.... The raucous dancing in the streets started around five or six in the morning; a few hours later, inner-city youth are linking arms with investment bankers and unruly college kids in a line-dance snaking all the way from Nashua, New Hampshire to Corvallis, Oregon. Millions of nerds finally feel wanted. Cool kids nationwide are taking a break from fast-living and loose morals to contemplate the glorious future of the Republic. Yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus. Or rather, yes, Ohio and Wisconsin and Minnesota, ye large industrial swing states of the Middle West, you are John Kerry's Santa Claus. Cookies and milk shall rain down upon you in the form of federal largesse...."
-The New Republic)
Why? Voter turnout. Likely voter polls fail most significantly when turnout is greater than expected - when people who weren't expected to vote do vote. High voter turnout, historically, has favored the Democratic candidate. I'm guessing we'll see higher voter turnout than any time in the last 40 years. Young people are excited. Many are fueled by anti-Bush (or pro-Bush) passions. Every state that is polling at even, or close to tied, will swing to Kerry on election day.
"Close your eyes and imagine the bluest stretches of Blue America on a crisp and clear Wednesday. It's the night after the presidential election. Though it was certainly close...John Kerry won by a healthy margin.... The raucous dancing in the streets started around five or six in the morning; a few hours later, inner-city youth are linking arms with investment bankers and unruly college kids in a line-dance snaking all the way from Nashua, New Hampshire to Corvallis, Oregon. Millions of nerds finally feel wanted. Cool kids nationwide are taking a break from fast-living and loose morals to contemplate the glorious future of the Republic. Yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus. Or rather, yes, Ohio and Wisconsin and Minnesota, ye large industrial swing states of the Middle West, you are John Kerry's Santa Claus. Cookies and milk shall rain down upon you in the form of federal largesse...."
-The New Republic)
posted by Marc at 1:17:00 PM
<< Home