final predictions

Popular vote: Kerry
Electoral vote: Kerry

Bush (232 EV)
Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia, Wyoming

Kerry (306 EV)
California, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin

states to watch

I'd say things are pretty clear in all but 7 states:
Florida (27 EV)
Ohio (20 EV)
Wisonsin (10 EV)
Iowa (7 EV)
Arkansas (6 EV)
New Mexico (5 EV)
Nevada (5 EV)

Leaving these states out, Bush has 216 EV (needs 54 EV) and Kerry has 242 EV (needs 28 EV).

This should be fun...